Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 0.188478 0.225677 0.270140 0.327753 0.401234 0.492916 6.177135e-01
2025-05-18 0.123674 0.160195 0.208421 0.278190 0.378994 0.523361 7.535015e-01
2025-05-25 0.085773 0.118073 0.164212 0.237261 0.354632 0.544718 8.964084e-01
2025-06-01 0.065563 0.095403 0.141245 0.220367 0.361634 0.621517 1.187646e+00
2025-06-08 0.051694 0.079011 0.123818 0.207596 0.373119 0.719177 1.616362e+00
2025-06-15 0.042181 0.067454 0.111520 0.200490 0.394884 0.859062 2.318586e+00
2025-06-22 0.035001 0.058302 0.101263 0.194487 0.419089 1.032955 3.415326e+00
2025-06-29 0.028568 0.049176 0.088942 0.180587 0.420772 1.162024 4.687962e+00
2025-07-06 0.021679 0.037966 0.070157 0.146782 0.357089 1.052384 4.788931e+00
2025-07-13 0.018685 0.033704 0.064653 0.142627 0.375173 1.248983 7.227830e+00
2025-07-20 0.016656 0.030982 0.061821 0.144400 0.414333 1.590548 1.252950e+01
2025-07-27 0.015053 0.028843 0.059823 0.147978 0.464661 2.084936 2.397012e+01
2025-08-03 0.013354 0.026310 0.056621 0.148103 0.509294 2.699495 4.921842e+01
2025-08-10 0.011633 0.023428 0.051928 0.142153 0.527621 3.242538 9.481708e+01
2025-08-17 0.010114 0.020754 0.047185 0.134420 0.534370 3.776590 1.851038e+02
2025-08-24 0.009141 0.019196 0.045044 0.134967 0.586761 5.028063 5.857988e+02
2025-08-31 0.008306 0.017827 0.043117 0.135702 0.645487 6.803462 2.730982e+03
2025-09-07 0.007633 0.016743 0.041757 0.138267 0.723937 9.675027 3.493820e+04
2025-09-14 0.007029 0.015733 0.040383 0.140368 0.808080 13.918906 1.792140e+07
2025-09-21 0.006345 0.014407 0.037745 0.135880 0.839411 17.705664 NaN
2025-09-28 0.005390 0.012235 0.032040 0.115251 0.710806 14.920334 NaN
2025-10-05 0.004985 0.011491 0.030769 0.115044 0.768451 20.608519 NaN
2025-10-12 0.004704 0.011041 0.030362 0.118966 0.877857 32.863626 NaN